In May, China's mass market boosted the Macau casino sector to its highest monthly revenue since the COVID-19 pandemic began in January 2020. 

Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau states that the city's six gaming operators — Sands, Galaxy, Wynn, MGM, Melco, and SJM — collectively earned MOP20.188 billion (US$2.51 billion) in May. The month saw a rise of almost 9% compared to April and was nearly 30% greater than May 2023. 

During the first five months of 2024, the total gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaches $11.19 billion, which is 48% higher than in 2023, yet 24% lower compared to the six casino companies' earnings in the same timeframe in pre-COVID 2019. 

Although the market has stayed subdued since 2019, Macau’s gaming sector, its most vital economic element, is experiencing a recovery within a markedly changed regulatory landscape. 

Mass Market Gaining Ground 

During the pandemic, the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) Government significantly transformed the regulatory framework for the operations of the six casino companies. Under Beijing's directive, Macau officials informed VIP junket groups, which had maintained vibrant high-roller rooms for years, that their activities would be monitored more rigorously. 

President Xi Jinping of China thought that junket groups enabled wealthy individuals from the mainland to transfer part of their cash assets via the tax haven to reduce their financial responsibilities to the communist government. The crackdown led many junkets to escape to emerging gaming markets, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, where the regulatory environment is more advantageous for their travel activities. 

The departure of junkets has led to a decrease in VIPs in Macau. This compelled the six concessionaires to reassess their business strategies and concentrate more on the mass market. 

The shift towards the general public keeps developing, and analysts believe investors ought to be satisfied with the rapid adjustments made by the casino companies. JP Morgan analysts indicated that May set a "record-high mass GGR" benchmark for the gaming licensees in Macau.

"The month printed the best GGR in 50-plus months and a record-high mass GGR in the history of Macau — quite impressive, especially given mounting investor concerns on macro/consumption elsewhere in China,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li.

The $2.51 billion earned last month marked the highest month since January 2020, when casinos collected $3.1 billion from players. May 2024 saw a GGR of $2.52 billion, which is 22% lower than the $3.22 billion recorded in May 2019. 

The six casinos keep investing in non-gaming ventures, which is a requirement of their 2022 licensing deal. The companies need to invest $16.2 billion in non-gaming projects by 2032. 

June Forecast 

Experts are predicting a decline in gaming revenue for June. June is usually a quieter month after May’s Labor Day Golden Week holiday and due to the high temperatures, which average close to 90 degrees Fahrenheit daily. 

June is noted as the month with the lowest seasonal gaming revenue for Macau. The analysts at JP Morgan anticipate that GGR will be approximately $2.2 billion. 

China's sole casino industry keeps generating revenue growth, even amid economic worries in other areas. Manufacturing operations on the mainland decreased more than anticipated in May, potentially signaling a continued deceleration of the world’s second-largest economy.